In the United States of America — midterm elections to Congress, when the entire House of Representatives and part of the Senate are changed. As statistics on electoral cycles in the United States show, the opposition party usually wins in midterm elections. Currently, in the United States, what we call a one-party government is in place, meaning that a Republican, Donald Trump, is at the head of the executive branch, and the legislative branch has a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate from the Republican Party as well. This, in my opinion, is the most dangerous option for any presidential republic.
Social networks play a significant role in choosing electoral preferences. There are advantages to this because it is a form of mobilizing people to participate in politics. However, an extraordinary amount of lies is spread on social networks
In any election in the United States, you can vote in advance. And by Tuesday, November 3, several tens of millions of people had already voted. Polls, which always take place in democratic countries, unfortunately, provide very little trustworthy information. Sociological surveys preceding elections regularly make mistakes. This happens in the United States and happened in Israel, where exit polls were incorrect.
Social networks play a significant role in choosing electoral preferences. There are advantages to this because it is a form of mobilizing people to participate in politics. However, an extraordinary amount of lies is spread on social networks. Many bloggers write without bothering to fact-check, often without even citing sources of information. This happens constantly and not only in the Russian-speaking internet. The network is filled with misanthropic, anti-Semitic, xenophobic views, etc. Unfortunately, social networks have also established themselves as means of spreading disinformation.
People find themselves in a similar situation when they use artificial intelligence, whose responses are heavily influenced by how and by whom this artificial intelligence is trained. Research by American professor Joshua Tucker has shown that even the language in which a question is asked to artificial intelligence affects the quality of responses about events, for example, in China.
In countries with authoritarian regimes, where there is no freedom of speech but state propaganda, the authorities have the ability to control electoral preferences. This is, by the way, one of the explanations for why elections are constantly held in Russia, for example. Everyone knows they are fake, that results are manipulated, that people have no real choice, yet the state uses the electoral procedure to influence people's mindsets.
Great Divide
Most serious analysts in the USA predicted that the Democratic Party would have a majority in the lower house. Why is this important? Because the right to allocate money in the United States is in the hands of the legislative branch, primarily the House of Representatives. They allocate money for various government programs, military programs, and programs supporting the poorest segments of the population. American media report that the White House has been preparing for six months for Trump to lose control of the House of Representatives. What will happen in the Senate is harder to say. Democrats had a big chance to take control of the Senate as well.
But within the Democratic Party itself, there are many problems. The party is plagued by endless squabbles. And at the head of the Democratic Party are elderly people who should have long been observing politics from a distance, giving advice to their grandchildren, rather than leading parties. There are also young politicians there who are uncompromising not only towards the Republican Party but also towards centrists in their own party.
There is also a significant divide on the issue of attitudes towards Israel. Progressives hold anti-Zionist, if not anti-Semitic, views. Anti-Israel sentiments are very strong now in the United States, particularly among right-wing populists like Tucker Carlson, a former long-time host of Fox News programs, who now has his own YouTube channel with tens of millions of subscribers. He once supported Trump, now he does not, because he believes Trump is controlled by Bibi Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel. The anti-Semitic wave is very strong. And, unfortunately, both parties bear a significant imprint of anti-Israel sentiments, which also affects electoral choice.
What will Trump do if he loses the majority in the House of Representatives? He will have to rule by decrees, and decrees are bad because they can be overturned by the next president in a second. Democratic presidents, of course, have also used this. Barack Obama, who worked his entire second term in opposition to Congress, was also forced to resort to these measures. These decrees are not a very democratic story. Secondly, as Trump has already said in one of his many interviews, he will use the right to veto. This means that the US judicial system will come into play. So far, Trump is successfully losing federal courts, having already lost more than 200 cases in US federal courts. A number of his bills, including the tariff law, were declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. This means there will be a tough confrontation between the executive and legislative branches of power.
We see that Trump came to the midterm elections embracing the Russian dictator Putin, lifting sanctions on Russia related to the purchase of diesel fuel, although it is clear that the diesel shortage in the United States is not due to Ukraine hitting oil refineries, but due to the war in Iran. Trump stated that there would be no new strikes on Iran until the midterm elections in the United States are over. Everyone expects the hot phase of the war to resume after the elections are completed. So by the end of the week, everything will be counted, the results will be known, and then we should expect the resumption of the war for the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Trump says he wants to reach an agreement with Iran, but it seems obvious that the hot phase of the war will resume.
Voting from Far Away
The situation in Iran also influenced the election results in Israel. I must say that for the first time I flew to vote in Israel, and at least 67 thousand people like me arrived. These are primarily those who wanted to vote for the opposition because we feel on our own backs, on our own spines, what the brutal war of Israel in Gaza turns into, causing a surge of anti-Semitism worldwide. And in Europe, it is just a very difficult situation.
A report by the UK National Health Service was published, showing that there were many incidents where Jewish patients were ostracized by doctors and nurses, etc. The situation is difficult in the Netherlands and France. Many Jews are simply leaving France because it is impossible to stay there. In the hotel where I stayed in Israel, there was a couple from France, a person from Poland, and another from America. They admitted that at home, they enter Jewish shops, synagogues with great caution, fearing attacks on the street.
Voting outside Israel is not possible, so wherever Jews live, if they have Israeli citizenship, they fly to vote in Israel. There is a volunteer organization that helps them with this. People fly at their own expense, Flying World only helps with organizing flights. I had never voted in Israel before. Honestly, it never even occurred to me. But precisely because the decisions made by the current leadership of Israel affect all of Israel as a people, the entire tribe, I considered it absolutely necessary to participate in this.
I knew in advance that I would vote for the opposition bloc, led by General Eisenkot, who opposes the bloc of the current Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu. Eisenkot lost a son and two nephews in the war in Gaza. So this is a person who truly understands what a tragedy these endless wars that Israel wages are, and what a tragedy is happening for everyone in Gaza. General Eisenkot understands that it is impossible for the country to endlessly lose its young people.
Just retribution for the actions of Hamas on October 7 became a war to destroy Gaza. Many in Europe and America condemn Israel for excessive use of force. And thank God, active hostilities in Gaza are now suspended.
It would be very important for politicians from Arab parties to gain seats in the Israeli government so that issues concerning the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are resolved with their participation
It must be said that neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition bloc managed to gain the necessary majority to form a government. And now much is being written about how both the opposition bloc and Netanyahu's bloc will be forced to negotiate with Arab parties. In my opinion, it would be very important for politicians from Arab parties to gain seats in the government so that issues concerning the West Bank and Gaza are resolved with the participation of Arab politicians.
In political science, there is the concept of "consensus democracy." It exists as a successful option, for example, in Switzerland, where cantons differ ethnically, and any decisions concerning a minority cannot be made without the consent of that minority. People must agree, that is, come to a consensus. It seems to me that such an option would be very beneficial for Israel. Israel's economy is growing well. In Tel Aviv, there are startups that are now the engine of the economy. And many IT specialists have said that if Netanyahu with crazy ultra-rights like Ben Gvir comes to power again, they will simply leave Israel. This is written about a lot in both American and Israeli media.
Living in Israel is not easy, living in Israel is dangerous, living in Israel is very expensive. But also bearing responsibility for the actions of not always adequate people, such as Ben Gvir, is something many Israelis do not want. I talked to different people in Israel, asked them what they think about this. The most frequently proposed are two options. One option is that people choose the status quo because they fear that any next prime minister will be worse than the previous one. This is a well-known problem not only for democratic countries.
The second is fear. Fear is related to the real threat from Iran. And people who voted for Netanyahu believe that he can bring the story with Iran to an end. In short, it's the fear of people that another prime minister will be less radical regarding Iran, may "bend under the changing world" of the United States, and not bring the story with Iran to an end.
Students Against Vucic
Elections were also held in Serbia, where Aleksandar Vucic, who had been in power in various capacities for 14 years, lost. He left the presidency to return to the head of a parliamentary party as prime minister. Vucic was a right-wing populist, but the elections were won, and more than half of the votes were gathered by left-wing populists, the so-called Student List: students led the protest against the corrupt government for two years.
It is not very clear yet what will happen in Serbia. One thing is clear: the talks about Orthodox societies being incapable of democracy are complete nonsense. People all over the world want one thing — freedom and security.
Vucic was very close to Putin, Russian propaganda, and Russian money, judging by everything, worked strongly in Serbia. But the Serbs insisted on their choice. In parliamentary republics, unfortunately, there are also situations where one political party maintains a majority for many years or even decades, as is the case with the Liberal Party in Japan, for example. Angela Merkel was in power, if I remember correctly, for 16 years. Vucic was in power for a total of 14 years. Netanyahu has been in power in Israel for 19 years in one way or another. Unfortunately, when people are at the top for so long, they lose their bearings, they lose their orientation, they start choosing as their advisors, assistants, and ministers not competent but loyal people — there is a wonderful work by Guriev* and Treisman "Dictators of Deception." It is written about authoritarian rulers, but exactly this happened, unfortunately, in Germany, in Serbia, and is happening in Israel.
And we remember times when Bibi Netanyahu formed coalitions with Arab parties and represented a centrist, but to stay in power, in recent years, he has formed coalition agreements with the most right-wing radicals, who are responsible for Israel largely losing its reputation as a democratic country in the civilized world. By the way, it is no coincidence that Netanyahu embraced Putin, these guys see each other from afar. Just like it is happening now between Trump and Putin.
Finished off "Novaya" I cannot fail to mention one more thing in conclusion. Last week it became known that "Novaya Gazeta" is being evicted from the building they had on Potapovsky Lane. "Novaya" had long been stripped of its license, but it continued to exist as an NGO, which allowed it to publish some materials on the site, release a magazine.
But even such palliative forms of the publication's existence were not needed by the Kremlin. This is precisely an indicator that Russia is turning from an authoritarian country into a totalitarian one. And this power will devour anyone who opposes it.
For those who live in Russia, the existence of "Novaya Gazeta" even as an NGO that publishes some materials and releases books with a circulation of up to 1000 copies was very important because people need to know that they are not alone, that there are those who are not afraid or are less afraid.
And in this sense, the preservation of both the "Novaya Gazeta" website and the building, on which a memorial plaque in memory of Anna Politkovskaya is installed, and inside — a museum of her memory — all this is very important. These are symbols, and symbols have colossal significance in politics, especially in the politics of harsh regimes. These symbols told people in Russia that not everything is lost, that it is not the end yet, that it is still possible to breathe somehow within the country... But, obviously, breathing is becoming completely impossible.
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* Yevgenia Albats, Sergey Guriev in Russia are declared "foreign agents".